Do people in the UK want a No-deal Brexit?

The situation in the UK and the storm over Brexit is quite incredible, with Boris Johnson's new government being repeatedly voted down in parliament over its plans for a No-deal Brexit by default on the 31st October.

That possibility seems to be more remote now that Hilary Benn's Bill seems set to become law in the next few days. Nevertheless, it is looking increasingly likely that there could be a General Election in the near future - it is certainly what Boris Johnson asked for last night.

But I find it incredible that anyone in their right mind would want to use a General Election to decide such an issue. Tories are likely to lose their seats to candidates from Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. And the remain vote will also be split between the LibDems, the Greens, the Scottish National Party and, to some extent, Labour.

There's a very interesting post that came out yesterday on the WhatUKThinks website. It's  by Professor John Curtiss, who appears regularly on the BBC to discuss Polls and election results, and it's called  "Do voters back the possibility of a No-deal Brexit?".

Since the site offers the possibility of leaving comments, I took the liberty of adding a couple of my own.

First this one, that I posted yesterday
 
Simon Thorpe · 4 September 2019 at 4:48 pm

I would have thought that another option for Boris Johnson would be to call for a referendum before the 31st October deadline. Once the meeting with the EU is over, he would be able to propose his best option (be it a renegotiated deal, or a no-deal exit), and ask the British public to simply say Yes or No. Presumably, Johnson believes that the majority of the public would back him. If they do, so be it. If the majority said “No”, at the very least it would be necessary to extend article 50.

Surely, everyone – whether they are Brexiteers or Remainers – should be happy to go this route. And it would certainly be infinitely better than trying to use a General Election to decide the issue. With a first past the post electoral system, and both the leave and remain votes split between several parties, no-one will be able to claim that the public had what they really wanted.

And then again, this morning

Simon Thorpe · 5 September 2019 at 7:37 am

Now that it looks pretty certain that a No-deal brexit by default on the 31st Oct can be avoided (the Bill will be passed by the Lords), it seems to me that Boris Johnson and the other hard-brexiteers in the government actually only have one option, if they want a No-deal Brexit. It is to ask the British Public to vote in a Yes/No referendum on No-deal brexit before the EU meeting. For example, why not choose the 15th October?

If there is a majority of Yes votes, then Johnson can go to the EU with the strong negotiating position that he craves.

If the public say No, then it would disarm the risk of the Tories being demolished by Farage’s Brexit party. They will have had their chance, and lost.

In either case, it would then be possible to have a sensible General Election that is not contaminated by the No-deal Brexit issue.

It seems to me that this is what everyone should be pushing for – including Labour, the LibDems, the Greens and the SNP. A general election where No-brexit is still an issue would probably force those parties to withdraw candidates locally to ensure that the Tories and the Brexit party don’t take over. That would not be an attractive option.

I wonder if anyone else in the UK political system can see that, really, a referendum may be the only way to resolve this problem sensibly.

Just added a further comment

Simon Thorpe · 5 September 2019 at 9:51 am
 

“Paul :I think Brexit isn’t the only problem and the reason why a general election is needed is driven by the public losing all faith in parliament, now.”

I’m 100% in favour of having a general election rapidly. But I believe that the sequence needs to be
1) Yes/No vote on No-deal Brexit (e.g. 15 October)
2) General Election (e.g. beginning of November).

That’s the only way that you could have a general election where people could vote freely and take into account other pressing policy issues.

I wouldn’t personally recommend having the General Election immediately after the No-deal brexit referendum, because it will be important to allow the various parties to reconfigure depending on the result. For example, if No-deal got the majority, the Brexit party could effectively disband. But if No-deal was voted down, it would be important for parties such as Labour to clarify their real position. Currently, it’s not clear whether Labour actually wants to leave (with a deal), or not. They may need some time to allow a clear position to emerge.