Brexit and the future of Europe

As a UK national who has been living in France for nearly 37 years, I have been watching the Brexit debacle in my home country with increasing despair. Is there any hope of an intelligent outcome? Something that could help change the direction of the planet, currently hurtling towards self destruction?

One thing that really annoys me is the obsession of Theresa May to "deliver" on the Brexit vote, without any chance for the British people to give their opinion on what has been negotiated. She has blocked any possibility of a second vote. And Jerermy Corbin's refusal to make a second confirmatory vote a condition for any agreement has meant that nothing has been achieved.

There's a very interesting web site that provides information about all the public opinion polls that have asked what the British public thinks over the last few years. It provides information in graph and table  of how people respond to the question "If there was a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, how would you vote?"in YouGov opinion polls. The following table gives the latest figures obtained by removing  people who say they don't know (currently 8%), and the 7% who say they would not vote.

The result is clear. The majority of people in the UK would like to remain! Indeed, the last time there was a majority that favoured leaving was over two years ago - on the 2nd March 2017.

And it really doesn't seem to matter what the exact phrasing of the question, or who does the polling.  For example, to the question "If there was another referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, how would you vote?" the data shows that the last time "Leave" had the majority was on the 8th of March 2018. And the latest polls from Kantar, Panelbase, ComRes, Deltapoll, YouGov and ORB give clear leads for Remain.

Finally, take a look at the Poll of Polls, which gives a running average of the last 6 polls. Currently, that running average  is 54% Remain. And remain has been systematical in front for well over a year.

If anyone is even vaguely interested in respecting the will of the people, they should be seriously challenging the current position defended by the UK goverment.

My feeling is that if the British people really wanted to leave the EU, then they should be allowed to. But the simple fact is that, apart from a fluke result three years ago, where there is now clear evidence that the result was influenced by interference from Russia, the majority of British citizens simply don't want to do that.

Add to that the fact that, in Scotland and Wales, there has always been a clear preference for remain, a decision to plough ahead with Brexit, against the will of the people, could well lead to the disintegration of the UK.

Now, I should make it clear that there are many things about the way that the EU is run that definitely need to be changed. The fact that the ex-European director of Goldman-Sachs, who somehow managed to end up as head of the European Central Bank, was able to create €2.47 trillion of fresh money (out of thin air) but used it to pump up the financial markets, rather than doing something useful, is a total disgrace. But if such aberrations are to stop, it has to be done by a decision imposed by the citizens of the Eurozone.

I can understand the frustration that led many people in the UK to reject the EU three years ago. I too would like things to change. But the fact is that even Eurosceptic parties like France's Rassemblement National (ex. Front National), led by Marine LePen, have changed their positions since the Brexit vote. Three years ago, LePen was pushing for France to leave the EU. But now, with right wing nationalism on the rise in many European countries, she clearly thinks that it may be possible to change things from within the EU.

So, even Nigel Farage, leader of the UK's Brexit party, should realize that there is a real chance to impose change on the EU, even if the UK was to follow the real will of the people, and remain.

And, surely, everyone must realize that if we are to save our planet from the impending ecological desaster, decisions have to be made collectively. Any belief that putting decisions in the hands of isolationists like Trump and his cronies must surely be totally misguided.

So my message to my compatriots in the UK is clear. Vote so that there is at least a hope that the UK could stay within the EU, and make its voice heard. Essentially that means voting for the LibDems or Green Party, with the option of voting for the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales.